How do I find my agency's actual close rate and average deal size?
Pull every proposal you've sent over a fixed window, tag each one won or lost, then divide wins by total decided proposals to get your win rate — and divide total won contract value by number of wins to get your average deal size. Do this from your actual proposal records, not memory, since owners tend to recall their best months and forget the quiet ones.
Most agency owners can name their best client off the top of their head but can't name their actual close rate. That gap matters: a slow month could be a lead-quality problem, a pricing problem, or just a proposal that isn't landing — and you can't tell which without the numbers. The fix isn't a gut check, it's a simple count you can do in a spreadsheet today, or automatically if your proposal tool tracks it for you.
Why the answer is what it is
Memory rounds toward your best months
You remember the deals you won and the big ones you lost, not the string of quiet no-replies in between. That selection bias makes your recalled close rate almost always higher than reality.
Win rate and deal size answer different questions
A low win rate with a high average deal size might mean you're chasing deals above your niche. A high win rate with a shrinking deal size might mean you're underpricing to close. You need both numbers together, not just one.
The math is the same whether you track it by hand or automatically
Win rate is won proposals divided by (won plus lost) proposals, over a fixed window. Average deal size is total contract value of won deals divided by the number of won deals. A spreadsheet with a status column and a value column gets you there.
Segmenting the data tells you what to fix
Break win rate and deal size out by service line, lead source, or proposal template and you usually find one segment dragging the average down. That's a more useful finding than a single blended number.
Time-to-close is the number most agencies skip
Tracking how many days a proposal sits before it's accepted or declined tells you whether slow follow-up, not price or fit, is the reason deals stall. It's cheap to track and easy to act on.
What to look for
- Pull every sent proposal from the last 2-4 quarters, not just the ones you remember
- Tag each one won, lost, or still open — drop the still-open ones from your rate calculation
- Divide won by (won + lost) to get your win rate; recalculate it monthly, not once a year
- Add up total contract value of won deals and divide by deal count to get average deal size
- Segment the numbers by service line or proposal template to see what's actually working
- Track days from sent to accepted/declined so you know if slow follow-up is costing you deals
- Re-run the math after any pricing or proposal-format change to see if it moved the needle
Related questions
What counts as a "lost" proposal versus one that's just stalled?
Set a cutoff — most agencies use 30 or 60 days with no client response — and move anything past it to "lost" so it doesn't sit in your open pipeline forever inflating your apparent win rate. Revisit the cutoff if your sales cycle runs longer than that.
How often should I recalculate close rate and average deal size?
Monthly is enough to catch a trend without overreacting to one good or bad week. Compare trailing 3-month and trailing 12-month numbers side by side so a single unusually large deal doesn't distort your read on the trend.
Is there a way to get these numbers without maintaining a spreadsheet?
HubWho is a pre-launch agency billing and operations platform built to track this natively: its quote builder logs every proposal sent, and the reports page is built to surface win/loss analytics — close rate, average deal size, and time-to-close — directly from that data, without a manual export.
How Roffik addresses this
Billing, ACH and card payments, recurring subscriptions, per-client margin tracking, and branded client portals for marketing agencies — built on Midnight + cyan. Learn more about HubWho.